More for More: Do Government Performance and Trust Boost Tax Compliance?

Abstract

Despite growing interest in citizen–state relations in Africa, empirical evidence on how perceptions of government performance and institutional trust influence tax compliance remains limited. Anchored in Fiscal Exchange Theory, this study investigates whether Zambian citizens who perceive better government performance are more likely to be tax compliant, and whether this relationship is shaped by institutional trust and perceptions of corruption. Using nationally representative Afrobarometer Round 8 survey data (N = 1,200), the study estimates logistic regression models of tax compliance intentions, controlling for trust in the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), perceived corruption in the ZRA, and demographic factors. The results show that trust in the ZRA is a strong and significant predictor of compliance intentions. Perceived government performance was positively associated with compliance but did not reach statistical significance. Corruption perceptions were not significantly related to compliance once trust was accounted for, suggesting that trust may buffer negative institutional perceptions. Education was positively associated with compliance intentions, while only the 45–54 age group showed significantly lower compliance odds relative to younger adults. Model diagnostics indicated good fit (Hosmer–Lemeshow p = .928) and strong classification accuracy (69.4%). These findings affirm the centrality of institutional trust in shaping tax morale and suggest that improving government performance alone may not translate into compliance without credible and trusted institutions. Policy efforts should emphasize trust-building alongside transparency and civic education to reinforce the fiscal social contract in Zambia.